Sunday, January 5, 2014

What does ID look like?

A question I've had for awhile: we know we can detect ID, but what does it look like?  In particular, how does a history of events look different if it is intelligently designed vs C&N?

A history of events is described by three points in time: Past (P), Current (C), and Future (F).Intelligent design is measured by how much information is known about C given knowledge of P or F, formalized as info(C|P or F).  If info(C|P) < info(C|F) and info(C|F) > info(F|C), then C is the result of intelligent agency.

In other words, if knowing the future tells you more about the present than knowing the past or present itself, then the present state is the result of intelligent agency.  The intuition is that intelligent action is purposeful, and best understood by the future purpose it achieves.

Based on simulations, as the number of choices increase, then so does the amount of information that can be created.  The following chart shows average increase in information with standard deviations.

An important implication of these results is Libertarian Free Will is a coherent concept, since it can be mathematically modeled.  For more information regarding the relation between ID and LFW, see the following article.

Data, chart and example time series:

R code:

R code in online interpreter: